New Report: One in Four Jobs at Risk of Being Transformed by GenAI, New ILO–NASK Global Index Shows

From the International Labour Organization (ILO):

A new joint study from the International Labour Organization (ILO) and Poland’s National Research Institute (NASK) finds that 1 in 4 jobs worldwide is potentially exposed to generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) — but that transformation, not replacement, is the most likely outcome.

The report, launched on 20 May, and titled Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure, introduces the most detailed global assessment to date of how GenAI may reshape the world of work. The index provides a unique and nuanced snapshot of how AI could transform occupations and employment across countries, by combining nearly 30,000 occupational tasks with expert validation, AI-assisted scoring, and ILO harmonized micro data.

“We went beyond theory to build a tool grounded in real-world jobs. By combining human insight, expert review, and generative AI models, we’ve created a replicable method that helps countries assess risk and respond with precision,” said Pawel Gmyrek, ILO Senior Researcher and lead author of the study.

The report’s key findings include:

• New “exposure gradients”, which cluster occupations according to their level of exposure to Generative AI, help policymakers distinguish between jobs at high risk of full automation and those more likely to evolve through task transformation.
• 25 per cent of global employment falls within occupations potentially exposed to GenAI, with higher shares in high-income countries (34 per cent).
• Exposure among women continues to be significantly higher. In high-income countries, jobs at the highest risk of automation make up 9.6 per cent of female employment – a stark contrast to 3.5 per cent of such jobs among men.
• Clerical jobs face the highest exposure of all, due to GenAI’s theoretical ability to automate many of their tasks. However, the expanding abilities of GenAI result in an increased exposure of some highly digitized cognitive jobs in media-, software- and finance-related occupations.
• Full job automation, however, remains limited, since many tasks, though done more efficiently, continue to require human involvement. The study highlights the possibly divergent paths for occupations accustomed to rapid digital transformations – such as software developers – and those where limited digital skills might have more negative effects.
• Policies guiding the digital transitions will be a leading factor in determining the extent to which workers may be retained in occupations that are transforming as a result of AI, and how such transformation affects job quality.

[Clip]

The ILO–NASK study emphasizes that the figures reflect potential exposure, not actual job losses. Technological constraints, infrastructure gaps, and skills shortages mean that implementation will differ widely by country and sector. Crucially, the authors stress that GenAI’s effect is more likely to transform jobs than eliminate them.

Read the Complete Release

Resources

Direct to Full Text Report
76 pages; PDF.

• Interactive Chart: How Might Generative Al Impact Different Occupations?
• Interactive Chart: How Might Generative Al What is the Possible Effect Of Impact Different Generative Al on Employment?

Media Report: AI Poses A Bigger Threat to Women’s Work, Than Men’s, Says Report (via Reuters)

Filed under: Data Files, Jobs, Journal Articles, News, Reports