When utilizing scenarios for strategic planning, it is crucial not to focus narrowly on a single scenario. Instead, we consider a spectrum of scenarios that highlight the key uncertainties within the scholarly ecosystem. This approach does not assume that the future will unfold exactly as any particular scenario suggests; rather, it acknowledges that the actual future is likely to incorporate aspecs from multiple scenarios and include unforeseen developments.
One component of the exploration conducted at the ARL Spring Meeting involved articulating and analyzing the strengths that research libraries have now, which are beneficial in each possible future. By surfacing library strengths in each scenario, we can better prepare to leverage these capabilities across varying future conditions, enhancing our adaptability and readiness. This method prevents rigid planning based on predictions and instead fosters a flexible strategy that can respond effectively to a diverse range of potential developments.
The four scenarios discussed at the meeting (and in the remainder of the post) are:
Scenario 1—Democratized and Socially Integrated AI
Scenario 2—Consumer-Oriented AI Focused on Education and Entertainment
Gary Price (gprice@gmail.com) is a librarian, writer, consultant, and frequent conference speaker based in the Washington D.C. metro area.
He earned his MLIS degree from Wayne State University in Detroit.
Price has won several awards including the SLA Innovations in Technology Award and Alumnus of the Year from the Wayne St. University Library and Information Science Program. From 2006-2009 he was Director of Online Information Services at Ask.com.
